DAT: Spot truckload rates extended their positive run in October

BEAVERTON, Ore., Nov. 19, 2024 — Truckload freight volumes continued to build in October as shippers looked for capacity to get ahead of the holiday retail season and potentially higher tariffs next year, said DAT Freight & Analytics, which operates the DAT One freight marketplace and DAT iQ data analytics service.

A measure of van, refrigerated (“reefer”), and flatbed loads moved in a month, the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) made solid gains compared to September:

  • Van TVI: 296, up 9%
  • Reefer TVI: 220, up 7%
  • Flatbed TVI: 314, up 12%

Year over year, the TVI was higher for all three equipment types: the van TVI was up 12%, the reefer TVI jumped 13%, and the flatbed TVI increased 14%.

Spot rates continue to run YoY positive
National average spot truckload rates inched higher compared to September. The van rate increased 3 cents to $2.02 a mile, the reefer rate edged 2 cents higher to $2.39, and the flatbed rate gained 4 cents to $2.42. 

“October continued the pattern of year-over-year gains in spot truckload rates and volumes, and approaching parity for contract rates,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics. “Five months into it, the contours of this freight cycle look conventional, like the 2013-2017 cycle, when monthly spot van rates averaged +5% year over year.”

Monthly average linehaul rates, which subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, have been year-over-year positive for all three equipment types since August. The van linehaul rate averaged $1.63 a mile, up 8 cents compared to October 2023. The reefer rate was $1.97, 11 cents higher, while the flatbed rate was $1.95, a 10-cent increase year over year.

Load-to-truck ratios reflect higher demand
The national average van load-to-truck ratio was 4.1, up from 3.5 in September, while the reefer ratio rose to 5.8 from 5.0. The flatbed ratio was 14.3, up from 12.8. Load-to-truck ratios reflect truckload supply and demand on the DAT One marketplace and indicate the pricing environment for spot truckload freight.

Contract pricing enters a new cycle
National average rates for freight moving under long-term contracts held firm last month but continued to track lower versus last year:

  • Contract van rate: $2.41 per mile, up 2 cents but down 10 cents year over year
  • Contract reefer rate: $2.74 a mile, up 1 cent but 22 lower year over year
  • Contract flatbed rate: $3.04 a mile, unchanged compared to September and 10 cents lower than last year

Dry van contract pricing is leaving the soft portion of the truckload business cycle after 30 months. The DAT iQ New Rate Differential (NRD), which measures changes in the contract market by comparing rates entering the market to those exiting, was 0% in October. A positive NRD signals a tightening market, while a negative NRD suggests the market is softening. “A van NRD at 0% is a signal that shippers and brokers can expect minimal rate reductions in responses to RFPs,” Adamo said.

MKT-0109_TVI-Monthly-Chart_VAN_OCT-2024

About the DAT Truckload Volume Index
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month. A baseline of 100 equals the number of loads moved in January 2015, as recorded in DAT RateView, a truckload pricing database and analysis tool with rates paid on an average of 3 million loads per month.

DAT benchmark spot rates are derived from invoice data for hauls of 250 miles or more with a pickup date during the month reported. Linehaul rates subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge.